The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its third year with no apparent end in sight. Despite Ukraine's suffering from dwindling ammunition supplies and difficulties in recruiting new troops, it may stand to gain from a prolonged war. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) even suggest that the conflict in Ukraine could potentially become a 'Vietnam' for Russian President Vladimir Putin, drawing parallels to the United States' failure to defeat Vietnam in the past.
Understanding Historical Analogies:
Max Bergmann, the Director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS, notes the historical precedence where smaller nations have often prevailed against larger ones in battles, citing Vietnam and other examples. This perspective offers insight into viewing the current war in Ukraine.
The Vietnam War Legacy:
The Vietnam War serves as a poignant example, where over 58,000 US soldiers lost their lives in a protracted conflict that spanned from the 1950s to 1975. It culminated in the fall of South Vietnam's capital, Saigon, to the North Vietnamese Army. This historical context underscores the potential challenges Russia might face in Ukraine.
Existential Stakes for Ukraine:
Eliot A. Cohen, Chairman at CSIS, emphasizes that Ukraine is not likely to surrender, as the conflict holds existential significance for them. However, it's not the same for Russia. With crucial military assistance from the West, analysts believe Ukraine could weaken Russian resolve and achieve similar outcomes seen in historical conflicts.
Examples of David vs. Goliath Scenarios:
Seth Jones, Senior Vice President at CSIS, highlights repeated instances where smaller nations have weakened and defeated significantly larger ones, such as the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, France and the US in Vietnam, the US and NATO in Afghanistan, and France in Algeria. These examples illustrate the potential resilience of Ukraine against Russian aggression.
The Role of Western Assistance:
The success of Ukraine largely hinges on the continuation of Western aid. The current debate in the US Congress over a crucial $60 billion aid package for Ukraine underscores the significance of international support in bolstering Ukraine's defenses.
Optimism for Ukraine's Future:
Despite the challenges, there's optimism regarding Ukraine's potential, especially if the funding is approved. Bergmann believes that with adequate support, Ukraine could withstand Russian attacks in 2024 and even emerge stronger by 2025.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine persists, the specter of a 'Vietnam Quagmire' looms over Russia. The historical parallels and the resilience of smaller nations underscore the potential for Ukraine to emerge victorious, especially with continued Western support. However, the outcome ultimately depends on the decisions made by international actors and the resolve of the Ukrainian people.
